Who to gain from Russian defeat?

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The reverses of Russia in Ukraine have created an enhanced bonhomie among the United States and its allies. There are reports of fleeing Russian youths from Russia after Putin’s order of partial mobilization and dampening of the morale of the Russian army. Definitely, the war has not gone as Putin might have thought. Rather the Ukraine war is gradually turning to be replication Russian debacle in First World War when nearly 7 lacs soldiers died due to faulty war strategy.

Hasty Decision: Military experts think that the way the Ukraine war has unfolded, clearly shows, wrong assessment, faulty planning, and foolish deployment of troops by the Russian generals. Actually, it appears that the US has proactively worked in Ukraine and had all information beforehand regarding the ambition of Russia in Ukraine. Therefore, the US and her allies buttressed the Ukrainian defense well on time. Putin’s over-confidence proved costly to Russia. He has been chief of the KGB for years. He is a seasoned politician and he is also acquainted with US counter moves. Probably to contain the war, he played the trick of the referendum and consequent annexation of four Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. However, it is alleged that a large part of these provinces is still under the control of Ukraine. He proposed to cease fire on Ukraine which was turned down. He might declare a unilateral cease-fire and invite Ukraine for dialogue. Technically he has brought these provinces under the Russian nuclear umbrella.

US Economic Motive shrouds Military and Political motives

The US wants to dominate world politics. It covertly works to make it Unipolar. For two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war US behaved as the international police. It secured its goal in West Asia without any resistance. Its intervention in Iraq was not approved by the UN. However, gradually the world started to become multi-polar. There was the emergence of China and Russia. India also showed signs of emergence. To contain China, it made India its strategic partner, but when India refused to toe its line, the US has gone back to the old policy of aiding Pakistan against Russia.

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The US wants to cripple Russia so that a Russo-Chinese combined front would not form. An isolated China will be easy to deal with.

Moreover, the eye is also on the rich resources of the Arctic. There the potent challenge may come from Russia and China. If Russia is defeated, the US will easily cope with Nordic countries to dominate the Arctic as it dominated oil-rich West Asia. However, this also may prove like” inviting the guest before the harvest is over”.

Reasons for Russian Losses

Unfriendly Neighbourhood– It is unfortunate that Russia does not have friendly relations with even erstwhile Warsaw Pact Countries of Europe. Poland is openly supporting Ukraine like most European countries. It is said that if your neighbors are with you, you can defeat 100 enemies. Except for Belarus, it cannot depend on any country bordering Ukraine.

Massive NATO help– NATO countries led by the US have poured their coffers into Ukrainian Military and logistic support to Ukraine is Surmountable. Actually, actually, Russia is not fighting only against Ukraine but the tactical support of several NATO countries together.

Defective Military Strategy: Russia’s offensive and ground battle strategies have not yielded the desired result. Ukraine worked on a strategy that first exhaust the enemy and when it is tired, exhausted, and desperate, goes all out against it. That method has given a good dividend.

Consequences of Russian Defeat: –
If Russia is actually defeated, its consequences will be far-reaching. It will enhance US influence tremendously. It will concentrate on China to bring it to its knee. For India too, the problem will certainly increase. American policing in internal matters of many countries will increase.

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